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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Tue 2nd Jan 2024 - Update: Jollibee, Waxy O’Connor, UKHospitality et al
Jollibee plans to ‘significantly increase its number of UK stores by end of 2028’ as it reports record turnover but increased losses: Jollibee, the Philippines fast food group, has said it plans to “significantly increase its number of UK stores by the end of 2028” as it reported record turnover but increased losses. Turnover in the UK increased to £17,897,195 for the year ending 31 December 2022 compared with £11,029,351 the previous year. Ebitda stood at a loss of £4.1m compared with a loss of £2.9m the year before. Pre-tax losses were up to £6,480,634 from £4,012,151 the year before, which is “partly due to relatively modest sales during the initial year following store openings”. The business operates 12 sites in the UK having consolidated its estate during 2023. In their report accompanying the accounts, the directors stated: “The company has reported a net liability position of £4.5m compared with a net asset position of £2.0m at the end of the previous period. The company is financial supported by its parent company group, which had provided loans and other funding amounting to £17.0m at 31 December 2022. The parent company, Jollibee Worldwide Pte (part of the Jollibee Foods Corporation group of companies), has undertaken to provide the company with sufficient additional financial support to enable the company to continue trading as a going concern, sufficient to cover its operating losses and to discharge its debts and liabilities as they fall due for the foreseeable future. A further net operating loss, although at a reduced rate, is expected for 2023 and 2024 partly as a result of inflation, higher than expected food cost increases, and a significant increase in the national minimum wage. Modest increases in revenue are forecast for 2023 and 2024, and then more substantial increases are planned from 2025 as the company intends to significantly increase its number of UK stores by the end of 2028.” The business did not receive any government grants (2021: £325,891). No dividend was paid (2021: nil). Jollibee made its UK debut in 2018 and operates about 1,200 sites worldwide. Jollibee features in the Propel Turnover & Profits Blue Book. Its turnover of £17,897,195 for the year ending 31 December 2022 is the 417th highest in the database. The Blue Book ranks companies by turnover, profit and profit conversion, listing directors’ earnings for the past five years. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription.

Waxy O’Connor operator Glendola Leisure ‘in strong position to grow’, turnover up to £33.4m but still below pre-covid levels: Waxy O’Connor operator Glendola Leisure, which is owned by the Salussolia family, has said it has “continued its strong recovery” and is in a “strong position to grow the business”. It comes as the group – which proclaims itself to have “the best Irish bars in the world”, with venues in central London and Glasgow – reported turnover increased 46% to £33,379,000 for the year ending 25 March 2023 compared with £22,816,000 the year before. However, revenue remained below the £38,917,000 reported for the year ending 31 March 2019 – the last full year before the covid pandemic. Pre-tax profit was up to £2,501,000 from £2,363,000 the previous year (2019: profit of £2,367,000). In their report accompanying the accounts, the directors stated: “The group has continued in its strong recovery following on from covid, the war in Ukraine and the resulting economic challenges, such as higher energy costs, staffing availability, interest rate increases, high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. The management is continuously trying to manage and mitigate these various challenges. Management believes the group is in a strong financial and operational position to grow the business and take on new opportunities.” The business received government grants of £5,000 (2022: £1,230,000). No dividend was paid (2022: nil).

UKHospitality – action on growth, investment and jobs ‘critical’ for 2024: UKHospitality has outlined its priorities for the new year with action on growth, investment and jobs “critical” for 2024. Chief executive Kate Nicholls said: “Hospitality businesses will be hoping this year brings some respite from the endless price rises that have plagued the sector over the past 18 months. What’s becoming more apparent is that, despite falling inflation, government action is still needed to bring costs down and allow hospitality businesses to reach their potential. We have a clear three-point plan that will deliver both those objectives: generate investment through root and branch reform of business rates, create jobs through apprenticeship levy reform and drive economic growth through a lower rate of VAT. With a general election set to take place in 2024, this clear plan will be our focus with all political parties to ensure hospitality is at the front and centre of policy making. Hospitality is clearly one of the most strategically important sectors in the economy – contributing £93bn to the economy, employing 3.5 million people and generating £54bn in tax revenues for the Treasury. With the potential our sector has for growth, it’s essential we receive the support and investment needed to achieve our goals.”

Bank of England poised to cut interest rates at least twice in 2024: The Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates at least twice in 2024, economists polled by The Times have said, as inflation slides to within touching distance of the official 2% target and as economic growth stalls. A majority of the 41 economists who took part in The Times’s seventh annual economists’ survey said the Bank would partly reverse its aggressive tightening of monetary policy downtrodden economic growth and weaker price pressures. Almost half (45%) of respondents predicted that the central bank would lower rates three times or more in the coming year, while two cuts was the most common forecast. Two economists said the Bank would leave the base rate at its present level of 5.25%, a 15-year high. More than eight in ten said the economy would expand between zero and 1% this year, leaving the country in what Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, called the “orbit” of a recession. Official third-quarter GDP estimates were downgraded to -0.1%, meaning Britain would meet the technical definition of a recession if the economy was found to have contracted in the final three months of 2023. Vicky Pryce, chief economic adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said that “without more certainty in policy and with planned cuts in real government current and capital spending, there is little expectation that the economy will do much more than flatline in 2024”. Britain will not be alone in experiencing another underwhelming year of output. A global economic growth rate of between 2% and 3% was the most common answer given by those surveyed, which would be among the slowest rates of expansion since the 2008 financial crisis. Favourable comparisons with the high energy prices of 2022 and slower wage growth could drag British inflation down to a range of 2.5% to 3.5% by the end of the year from its present level of 3.9%. However, persistent price pressures would prompt the Bank to loosen its monetary policy with greater caution, with economists warning that services inflation may prove stubborn, the newspaper said.
 
Food inflation in UK stores fell to lowest level in more than a year in December: Food inflation in UK stores fell sharply in December to its lowest level in more than a year as supermarkets competed on price to attract Christmas shoppers, reports the Financial Times. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said food inflation slowed to 6.7% last month, down from 7.7% in November, meaning it has fallen for the eighth month in a row to the lowest since June 2022. The numbers, which cover December 1 to 7, follow the Office for National Statistics reporting slower-than-expected consumer price inflation last month, stoking speculation that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates from May. Higher food costs have been a major driver of inflation in the UK and shoppers have adapted by buying own-label goods and frequenting discount grocers. Many supermarkets lowered prices on traditional festive vegetables, including potatoes, sprouts and carrots, to below 20 pence in the final week before Christmas to pull in shoppers, according to the BRC. Promotions in food retail reached the highest in four years in December, said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NielsenIQ, which produces the data for the BRC. But headwinds may prevent retailers from cutting prices as much as they had hoped in 2024, the BRC said. “Retailers will continue to do all they can to keep prices down in 2024, but there are obstacles on the road ahead,” added Helen Dickinson, BRC chief executive officer.

Hollywood Bowl and Deliveroo among share tips for 2024 from Telegraph business team: Hollywood Bowl and Deliveroo are among the share tips for 2024 from The Telegraph’s business team. Hollywood Bowl was the pick of employment editor Lucy Burton, who said: “If Generation Z don’t fancy getting after watching the older generation embarrass themselves after one too many, as the boss of one alcohol-free drinks maker puts it, then hobbies such as bowling are in for a renaissance. Retro activities will surely take off in the years ahead as twenty-somethings flock to wholesome pastimes – this year’s reopening of Peckham Bowls Club in London, for example, has proved a hit with a younger crowd. Private equity is already sniffing around this trend, snapping up ten-pin bowling operator Ten Entertainment in December. That throws its rival Hollywood Bowl into the spotlight. The company has proved appealing to cash-strapped households looking for low-cost fun during the cost-of-living crisis and analysts at AJ Bell believe that the takeover of its rival will now pressure it to up its game and expand. It has already planted flags beyond bowling with its expansion into mini-golf and a move overseas. For investors, it could end up becoming a strike.” Deliveroo was the pick of senior technology reporter Matthew Field, who said: “The ‘worst IPO in London’s history’ crowed the headlines when Deliveroo went public in 2021. Well, that’s all in the past now and Deliveroo is looking increasingly appealing after serving up a steady recovery in its share price over the past 12 months. Its stock is up more than 50% and the company is promising profitability by 2025. What’s more, it has begun fattening up shareholders with share buybacks thanks to its substantial pile of cash. It has finally seen off employment issues in the form of a Supreme Court challenge over whether its riders can unionise. Big shareholders have also shown their appetite for the company’s stock – rival Delivery Hero quietly upped its stake from 5% to 6.7% in October. Most interestingly, the food delivery business is also increasingly the topic of takeover speculation. Investors have taken note that Deliveroo’s founder, Will Shu, has special voting shares, which give him outsized voting control over the company. However, they include a sunset clause that ends in 2024, meaning a major Deliveroo deal could finally be on the menu.”

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